Friday, July 29, 2011

Mass. economy looks at ‘modest’ growth

By James M. Connolly

The Massachusetts economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent this year, and by 2.8 percent in 2012, with almost 150,000 new jobs coming on line between the start of 2011 and the end of 2012, according to research by the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University. The economic numbers have the Bay State tracking along with the rest of the nation.

The institute said today that the state will have added 84,000 jobs before the end of 2011 and another 65,000 jobs next year, which researchers called a “moderate pace.”

In addition, the researchers expect the growth in employment to boost salaries and wages by a “modest” 3.2 percent in 2011 and 3.6 percent in 2012. That growth in income, BHI said, is comparable to the recovery from the dot-com difficulties in 2001 and significantly slower than the recovery from the 1990-91 recession.

The key indicator used by the BHI was the State Gross Domestic Product, which had been at 5 percent in 2010.

Some of the positive notes cited by the BHI included the fact that the Massachusetts economy has been outperforming most other states; state tax revenues surged to $20.507 billion in fiscal year 2011, exceeding all estimates; and the Massachusetts unemployment rate for June was 7.6 percent, well below the nation’s rate of 9.2 percent.

According to the BHI, areas of concern include the fact that 30 percent of Massachusetts’ out-of work employees were unemployed for a period of more than 52 weeks, slightly above the national average for this measurement.