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Friday, December 19, 2008
Looking ahead: Sector by sector surveys of the landscape ahead
Despite lower oil prices, alternative energy firms upbeat for 2009
By Efrain Viscarolasaga
MHT's Efrain Viscarolasaga: Solar installation booms in New England
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How is the economic crisis affecting tech companies?
In 2008, oil and gas prices soared, as did concerns surrounding global warming, spurring a massive upswing in interest, innovation and investment in clean technology. But with the prices back to earth, will the “clean energy revolution” risk repeating the mistakes of the last boom, in the late 1970s?
Local industry insiders are optimistic and are still saying no.
“I am heartened to hear from our president-elect that we ‘won’t get fooled again’ and that the underlying policies with respect to clean and alternative energy won’t change,” said Phil Giudice, commissioner of the Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources. “We have seen some changes in the marketplace, and we probably will (see more), but over the long haul, the policies will remain the same.”
In a macro sense, the industry is expected to keep its momentum moving forward, pressing through the price fluctuations, yet some markets could see a lengthening of adoption times, said Jonathan Klein, the founder of market research firm Topline Strategy Group in Newton.
“Whether a market breaks in 2009 or 2010 is only a difference of a year, but that could be a big deal for a startup,” Klein said.
As long as funding holds up, most small companies say they will continue moving forward. Salvatore Scuderi of the The Scuderi Group LLC in West Springfield, for example, said he fully expects the price of oil to rise again in the new year, as the economy turns around. Regardless, his company will continue the development of a new kind of engine that is expected to improve efficiency by 33 percent. In fact, despite the drop in prices this fall, the company recently expanded its operations in Germany with new executives.
Scuderi Group’s potential OEM partners, which include automotive manufacturers in the U.S. and abroad, have continued to express interest in the company’s innovation, said Scuderi.
Many experts point to electricity and power efficiency technologies — including wind, solar, efficient lighting and grid-scale power storage — as the sectors most immune from oil price volatility, and said 2009 could be a good year for such industries.
Jonathan Abe, vice president of North Andover-based solar installer and energy consulting firm Nexamp Inc., said his solar business has seen little effect from the drop in prices. However, Nexamp also created a geothermal heating business unit earlier this year, and according to Abe, the down trend in oil prices has changed the timbre of interest.
“We’re not getting the panicked inquiries we got in the past, but we are still getting some traction there,” he said.
The public push for emissions reduction, as well as the incoming administration, will be enough to keep the green movement’s momentum alive.
“There is a much stronger political platform for clean energy now, with the Obama administration, than there was when Reagan took over for Carter,” Abe said.
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